One of the first questions that potential buyers want answered is: “What is your interest rate?”It is easy to think that this is the most important question, but there is a lot more to your mortgage contract than just the rate. And so, the rate debate continues!

The rate debate is a hot topic in the mortgage world. Not just the rates itself, but the importance of the rate versus other factors in the mortgage – such as terms and penalties. As a borrower, it can be easy to get caught up in one thing but, if you’re not paying close attention, ignoring other factors could cost you in the long run.

Before we get into these other factors, let’s talk rate. While not the only factor, it does continue to be an important decision criteria with any mortgage product. The interest rate is the percentage of interest you are paying on the principal loan; lower interest rates means more money to the mortgage and who doesn’t want that?

VARIABLE VS. FIXED

There are two types of mortgage rates: variable-rate and fixed-rate. A fixed-rate is just that – a fixed amount of interest that you would pay for the term of the mortgage. A variable-rate, on the other hand, is based off of the current Prime Rate, and can fluctuate depending on the markets.

Fixed rates are typically tied to the world economy where the variable rate is linked to the Canadian economy. When the economy is stable, variable rates will remain low to stimulate buying.

Fixed-Rate Mortgage: First-time homebuyers and experienced homebuyers typically love the stability of a fixed rate when just entering the mortgage space. The pros of this type of mortgage are that your payments don’t change throughout the life of the term. However, should the Prime Rate drop, you won’t be able to take advantage of potential interest savings.

Variable-Rate Mortgage: As mentioned, variable-rate mortgages are based on the Prime Rate in Canada. This means that the amount of interest you pay on your mortgage could go up or down, depending on the Prime. When considering a variable-rate mortgage, some individuals will set standard payments (based on the same mortgage at a fixed-rate), this means that should Prime drop and interest rates lower, they are paying more to the principal as opposed to paying interest. If the rates go up, they simply pay more interest instead of direct to the principal loan. Other variable-rate mortgage holders will simply allow their payments to drop with Prime Rate decreases, or increase should the rate go up. Depending on your income and financial stability, this could be a great option to take advantage of market fluctuations.

BEYOND RATES

When considering your mortgage, other considerations such as penalties can be important factors for deciding on a mortgage product. If you have two competing products, say 1.65% interest fixed-rate and a 1.95% interest variable-rate, it seems as though it is a pretty easy decision. But, what about the ability to make extra payments? And what are the penalties?

It is easy to think that nothing will change throughout your 5-year mortgage term, so you probably haven’t even considered the penalties. However, when looking at the fixed versus variable rate mortgage, penalties can be quite different. Where variable rates typically charge three-months interest, a fixed rate mortgage uses an Interest Rate Differential (IRD) calculation.

Given that nearly 70% of fixed mortgages are broken before the term ends, this is an important variable. Fixed-rate mortgages are typically okay when the penalty is your contract rate versus the Benchmark rate. However, when penalties are based on the Benchmark rate (sometimes called the Bank of Canada rate), it is typically much higher than your contract rate, resulting in greater penalties.

In some cases, penalties for breaking a fixed mortgage can sometimes be two or three times higher than that of a variable-rate. While the interest rate is lower, lower penalties are sometimes best should anything happen down the line.

CONVENTIONAL VS. HIGH-RATIO MORTGAGE

Another consideration beyond just the interest rate, is whether or not you will be obtaining a conventional or a high-ratio mortgage. Whenever possible, it is recommended to put 20 percent down payment on a new home. This results in a conventional mortgage. However, as not everyone is able to do this, many buyers will end up with a high-ratio mortgage product.

So, what does this mean?

High-ratio mortgages need to be insured by either Genworth Financial, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), or Canada Guaranty. This is due to the Bank Act, which will only allow financial institutions to lend up to 80 percent of the homes purchase price WITHOUT mortgage default insurance. Insurance on the mortgage is important to protect the lender should you default on your payments, leaving the insurer to deal with the borrower.

The difference between conventional and high-ratio mortgages is that high-ratio mortgages require insurance, which results in an insurance premium. This is added to and paid along with the mortgage, but is an important factor when considering your monthly payments. These premiums are based on the loan to value (LTV), which is the amount of the loan versus the value of your home.

All high-ratio mortgages are regulated to have mortgage insurance, but some homeowners with a conventional mortgage may choose to pay for mortgage insurance to get a better rate.

SMART QUESTIONS TO ASK

To ensure you understand your mortgage contract, and how it could affect you now and in the future, we have compiled a few smart questions to ask before you sign.

1. What is my interest rate? Can I qualify for a better one?
2. Do you recommend fixed or variable-rate?
3. What are the penalties for breaking my mortgage?
4. Are there any pre-payment penalties?
5. Will I require mortgage insurance? If so, what are the premiums?
6. What will my monthly payment be?
7. Is my mortgage portable?

These are just a few examples of good questions to ask. It is important to do your own research and be diligent with any contract you are signing. Contacting a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker today can help ensure you understand what you are agreeing to, and that you are getting the best mortgage product for you!

written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

There are four major components to any successful home buying A-Team: your mortgage professional, realtor, home inspector, and lawyer. Each of these individuals is important to various aspects of the home buying process.

MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL

While many people think a real estate agent is the most important person when it comes to buying a new home, your mortgage professional comes first. This is especially true for anyone looking to pre-qualify for a mortgage before searching for their forever home! Not only does pre-qualification help you establish your budget, but it can also lock in a low rate for you for up to 120 days while you search for your perfect home.

When it comes to choosing a mortgage professional, there has been a recent upward trend in using a mortgage professional to arrange mortgage financing. Many banks are cutting back on staff and centralizing operations to save money. While this doesn’t affect the day-to-day finances, it can create a headache when it comes time to discussing and finalizing a mortgage agreement.

You may not know much about mortgage professionals, but they are steadily gaining popularity due to providing top-notch service and unbiased advice. Also, unlike individual banking representatives who often move from one branch to another, mortgage specialists work to form lifelong relationships with their clients. The dedication of mortgage professionals to their clients and their unique position in the mortgage market often results in finding lower rates for their customers and providing the best possible plan to ensure their clients’ financial success.

One of the reasons mortgage professionals are able to find their clients such amazing deals when it comes to mortgage interest rates is that they operate independently of any single financial institution. Banks are only able to access their rates – no one else’s. Mortgage brokers, on the other hand, have access to MORE rates and lenders than the bank! In fact, a typical broker has access to over 90 lenders! This means they are able to shop around, on your behalf, to find the most affordable option thereby saving you tons of time and money in the long run.

So, not only can a mortgage professional shop around for you AND save you money on your interest rate, their services are almost always free to the homebuyer! This is because mortgage professionals get paid by the lenders directly! What else can you ask for? Better rates, personalized service, flexibility, and products at no cost to you. Some people may argue that the fee is built into the payment, but this is not so. It costs the banks approximately 40 percent less to generate a mortgage through an agent than a branch, as there is no overhead to pay if the bank doesn’t get a client’s business. Instead, the mortgage broker bears the entire cost of day-to-day business activity and the bank simply pays for the privilege of gaining you as a client.

Your mortgage professional has also developed relationships with numerous realtors and is also able to recommend a qualified realtor to help you through the home-buying process.

WHO CAN FUND YOUR MORTGAGE?

Mortgage professionals have access to a variety of lenders to ensure they find you the best rate, but who exactly are these lenders?

BANKS

A bank is a financial institution that accepts deposits, lends money and transfers funds. Banks are listed as public, licensed corporations and have declared earnings that are paid to stockholders and are regulated by the federal government’s Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Most Canadians know the five big banks: BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC, RBC, and TD Canada Trust. Big banks are great options for variable rate mortgages as they have smaller penalties if you have to break the mortgage for any reason. When it comes to fixed-rate mortgages however, the penalty can be quite large when compared to different types of lenders.

CREDIT UNIONS

Credit unions also deposit, lend and transfer funds much like a bank, but beyond that there are some major differences between the two.

Credit Unions have an elected Board of Directors that consists of elected members from their community. They are local and community-based organizations and, unlike the banks, are provincially regulated versus federally.

One major advantage of getting your mortgage through a credit union versus a bank is that the credit unions are not subject to the recent “stress test” changes for uninsured mortgages (excluding Quebec). This is due to the fact that credit unions are provincially regulated and the stress test is a federal regulation. Of course, your ability to pay down your debt will still be tested, but not at the higher rate.

Another advantage of using a credit union is that the calculation for penalties when it comes to breaking a mortgage agreement are typically friendlier to the borrower, and, if there are credit issues, they tend to be more understanding than the big banks.

MONOLINES

A monoline is a type of financial service that specialises in consumer credit, home mortgages or a sole class of insurance. While these businesses typically do not have branches and are mainly accessed through a mortgage professional, there are some advantages to the consumer when it comes to using a monoline lender.

The first is that monolines usually offer better discounted rates and how they calculate the penalties can be friendly to the client. The biggest strike against them is they’re just not as well-known or trusted as a bank. It should be noted, however, the major investors in monolines are the big banks, so there’s nothing really to fear.

ALTERNATIVE LENDERS

If for any reason you are not able to get approved for a mortgage through traditional lender channels, there is another option – Plan B. In fact, these secondary lenders make up almost 10 percent of mortgage transaction volume! That said, there are a few things to know.

The first is that alternative lenders often provide higher interest rates than A-lenders as it is a more risky investment. In addition, most B-lenders will charge a one-time fee of 1% of the loan amount. However, if you have no other options this is still a viable way to get approved!

Mortgage professionals have access to a fair number of alternative mortgage lenders (B-lenders) who offer excellent solutions above and beyond the traditional branch-based options. When mortgages are arranged through an agent with an A-lender, the charge is covered by the lender directly. However it is important to note that there may be a fee when sourcing an alternative mortgage lender.

WHAT DOES A LENDER NEED TO KNOW?

Before a mortgage can be approved, there are a few things that your lender or mortgage professional needs to know.

INCOME AND JOB STABILITY

The first thing that your mortgage professional or lender will ask for is details surrounding your income and job stability.

Your income will determine how much money you can borrow. In most cases, 35 percent of your gross income for salaried, non-self-employed, or commissioned people is used to determine how much you can borrow to cover the cost of the mortgage payments, taxes and any applicable maintenance. All other debts (car loans, credit cards and lines of credit, etc) must not exceed an additional seven percent of your gross income.

It is also important to note that sticking with your employer while going through the home buying process is crucial. Any changes to your employment or income status can stop or greatly delay the mortgage approval process.

CREDIT HISTORY

Your credit history and credit score are used to show that you pay your bills on time. A great credit score includes keeping a balance on credit cards at any given time that is below 30 percent of the total card limit – and paying it off monthly. A credit rating above 680 puts you in a good position to get financing while a score below will result in higher interest rates or a more challenging mortgage acquisition.

If you’re new to the world of credit, consider the 2-2-2 rule. Lenders want to see two forms of resolving credit (ie: credit cards) with limits no less than $2,000 and a clean payment history for two years.

WHAT DO YOU NEED ONCE YOUR OFFER IS ACCEPTED?

Once you have put in an offer on your dream home and it has been accepted, there are a few things you will need to finalize your mortgage agreement.

INCOME CONFIRMATION

Supplying your income details to the lender for pre-approval helps to determine your budget and how much you can borrow. Once you are ready to finalize the mortgage, you will need to confirm this information. For salaried individuals, this can be done by submitting a letter of employment, your most recent pay stub, your last two years’ income, and Notices of Assessment from Revenue Canada.

DOWN PAYMENT CONFIRMATION

The lender will require that you prove the source of your down payment. You’ll have to send in bank statements, RRSP statements, stocks, etc that show the previous three-month history of your accounts. If there are any large lump-sum deposits, you’re likely to be asked to show where the deposit originated. You’ll also be asked to demonstrate that you have access to 1.5 percent of the purchase, in addition to the down payment, to ensure you are able to cover closing costs such as: legal fees, Title Insurance, property tax prepayment and Property Transfer Tax.

CONTRACT OF PURCHASE AND SALE

This is a copy of the accepted offer of the home you intend to purchase and a copy of the MLS listing sheet. The purchase contract will also be accompanied by a Property Disclosure Statement and a Strata Form B Disclosure if applicable.

REAL ESTATE AGENT

As you may already know, a real estate agent is one of the most vital members of your homebuying A-Team! In fact, in today’s competitive real estate market, it can be very difficult to acquire property WITHOUT the help of a realtor.

One of the reasons realtors are integral to the home buying process is that they can provide access to properties that never even make it to the MLS website. Realtors also gain access to information about homes that may come onto the market before a listing is even signed.

Most importantly though, a realtor understands the ins-and-outs of the home buying process and can tell you how to be successful in your endeavors to purchase a home by guiding you through the process from the first viewing to having your bid accepted.

HOME INSPECTOR

While a competitive market can make a home inspection more difficult, it is a highly recommended part of the home buying process! Having a home inspection done is important to ensure that there are no hidden surprises which may crop up after the sale is finalized. A home inspector can determine what’s behind the walls and look for any signs of mold, leaks or old wiring that could cost you down the road. A good home inspector can often be recommended by your mortgage professional or realtor who may know of many reliable options for getting your inspection done.

While most people assume home inspections are just for the buyer, that’s not always the case. If you’re selling a home, you might want to consider a home inspection too! Any issues that come up during an inspection by a potential buyer can lead to delays and kill a deal all together but scheduling a certified inspection prior to putting the home on the market could save you time and ensure a smooth process once you do start getting offers!

LAWYERS AND NOTARIES

Once you are ready to finalize financing and purchase a home, you will need a lawyer or notary to draw up the documents and register them on file for you. Since the visit to your legal professional is the last step in the entire process, it’s extremely important that this be handled with care. Mortgage professionals can recommend a qualified lawyer or notary who specializes in real estate transactions that can help streamline this process.

If you are looking to get help with your mortgage, contact one of Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Professionals today for expert advice you can count on!

written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

Canadian Inflation Spikes to 6.7% in March.

written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

Another Strong Canadian Jobs Report–We Are At Full Employment.

Statistics Canada released the March Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting a 72,500 jobs gain from the whopping 337,000 surge in February. Employment increased in both the goods- and services-producing sectors. Gains were concentrated in Ontario and Quebec. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3%, its lowest monthly rate since the data series was released in 1976, compared to 5.5% in February.

This adds more fuel to the notion that the Bank of Canada is behind the curve and will likely raise the overnight policy rate by 50 basis points next week. Indeed, Canada’s 2-year government note yield spiked on the news to 2.46%, up 2.38% at yesterday’s close.

Swap markets are now predicting a 75% probability of a half-point hike next week and an overnight rate of 3% a year from now. The overnight rate was 1.75% in February 2020, just before the pandemic began. Since then, inflation has surged from just over 2% to 5.7% in February. The March inflation data will be released on April 20, and it is widely expected to rise further. Indeed, the gauge of global food prices inflation is currently at a record high, exacerbated by the disruptions associated with the Ukraine war.

Adding to inflationary pressure is the rise in Canadian wage rates coming from the excess demand for labour. Total hours worked rose 1.3% in March. Average hourly wages increased 3.4% on a year-over-year basis, up from 3.1% in February. Illustrating the imbalances between labour supply and demand, employment gains since September (+463,000; +2.4%) have outpaced growth in the size of the population aged 15 and older (+236,000; +0.8%) during the same period.

Bottom Line 

This Labour Force Survey was conducted in mid-March, after the February 24th start of the Ukrainian War. Since then, many commodity prices have surged, especially oil, gasoline, aluminum, wheat and fertilizer. This has boosted inflation worldwide, dampening consumer and business confidence and reducing family purchasing power. The Bank of Canada’s recent Business Outlook Survey shows that businesses expect inflation to continue for two years.

The newly released Bank of Canada Survey of Consumer Expectations shows record-high short-term inflation expectations. Despite more significant concerns about inflation today, longer-term expectations have remained stable and are below pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and those survey respondents believe the current rise in inflation will not last.

This view is predicated on the Bank of Canada tightening monetary policy significantly. All messaging from the Bank confirms that it will provide this by raising the overnight rate to around 3% over the next year and by quantitative tightening, reducing its holdings of Government of Canada bonds.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that housing markets have already responded to rising mortgage rates. Supply has increased, and multiple-bidding activity has weakened.

written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

Canadian Home Sales Rose in February as New Listings Increased Sharply.

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales were up in February 2022 as buyers jumped on the first spring listings. The number of newly listed properties surged a welcome 23.7% from extremely depressed levels, hopefully portending a much-needed increase in supply that will continue for the spring selling season. National home sales rose 4.6% month-over-month in February as prices rose 3.5%, taking the y/y price gain to a record 29.2%.

In February, sales were up in about 60% of local markets, led by some big jumps in Calgary and Edmonton. The GTA also outperformed the national averages.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in February 2022 came in 8.2% below the monthly record set in 2021. That said, as was the case in January and throughout the second half of 2021, it was still the second-highest level on record for that month.

New Listings

The pullback in new listings in January was reversed in February, rebounding by 23.7% m/m. The monthly gain was led by the GTA, Calgary and the Fraser Valley.

With sales up by quite a bit less than new listings in February, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell back to 75.3% after having shot up briefly to 89% in January. The February reading puts the measure roughly back in line with where it has been since the summer of 2020. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55.1%.

About two-thirds of local markets were seller’s markets based on the sales-to-new listings ratio is more than one standard deviation above its long-term mean in February 2022. The other third of local markets were in balanced market territory.

There were just 1.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2022 — tied with January 2022 and December 2021 for the lowest level ever recorded. The long-term average for this measure is a little over five months.

Home Prices

There were just 1.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2022 — tied with January 2022 and December 2021 for the lowest level ever recorded. The long-term average for this measure is a little over 5 months.

Compared to the national year-over-year increase, gains remain about on par in British Columbia, lower in the Prairies and Newfoundland & Labrador, a little lower in Quebec and Prince Edward Island, and a little higher in Ontario, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. The regional differences under the surface of those provincial numbers can be seen in the table below.

Bottom Line

Canada has the most significant housing shortage in the G7. This began in late 2015 when the federal government decided it would target the entry of much larger numbers of economic immigrants. Canada is “underpopulated” and celebrates a growing population, unlike many other countries. There are many job vacancies to be filled, and more people means more economic growth and prosperity for Canada.

In mid-February, the federal government revised up its targets for immigration this year and next (see chart below), raising the spectre of even more significant housing shortages going forward. While CMHC announced an 8% rise in February housing starts this morning, home completions are not keeping up with the increase in household formation. The only solution is a sharp increase in new home construction for sale and rent. This requires local zoning regulations to increase housing density and measures to speed up the approval processes.

This month, the Bank of Canada began their rate-hiking cycle with much more to come. We believe they will raise the overnight rate again on April 13, with the likelihood of five more rate hikes this year. That would take the overnight rate up to 2.0% by yearend. The Ukraine War has added to future uncertainty, but it has also boosted inflation pressures and increased the risk of a marked economic slowdown. All in, home price pressures are likely to dissipate for the remainder of this year and well into next year.

written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

Interest Rates & Commodity Prices Surge On Economic Rebound Optimism.

Canadian 5-Year Bond Yield Surges 

In an unprecedented move, bond yields are spiking around the world. Yields globally are now at levels last seen before the coronavirus spread worldwide. At the same time, commodity prices are surging, including energy, metals and minerals, agricultural products and lumber. The Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package is has triggered fears that if the US economy returns to full employment too quickly, inflation might be the result.

Central banks have attempted to soothe markets, with European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane saying the institution can buy bonds flexibly. Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the recent run-up in yields “a statement of confidence” in the economic outlook. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem told us earlier this week that it’s a long road to recovery for the Canadian economy. The Bank of Canada will continue to provide support every step of the way. Many Bay Street economists took this to mean that he reinforced the BoC’s commitment to keeping the policy rate at its effective lower bound of 25 bps until sometime in 2023.

These global developments have sideswiped Canada. On Tuesday, I warned that the 5-year government bond yield had risen 27 bps to 0.69% since the beginning of this month, shown in the first chart below. This morning, the rise has become exponential, hitting 1.00%, shown in the second chart.

Keep in mind that Canada’s economy has considerable slack with unemployment rising in recent months and the lockdown continuing for at least a couple more weeks in the GTA. Moreover, Canada has fallen far behind other countries in the vaccine rollout. But there is no denying that pent-up demand in Canada is high. Not only have home sales been breaking records, but auto sales and anything housing-related–such as Home Depot earning growth–have skyrocketed.

Savings rates are high, and the big banks have reported a surge in deposit growth as consumers squirrel away those savings. Remember, the Roaring Twenties was a response to the 1918 Pandemic, more than anything else.

The CRB commodity price index, shown below, is on a tear, and the gains are in every sector except gold and orange juice. That means that new home construction costs are also rising, as home sales remain well above listings.

Bottom Line

It’s time to lock-in mortgage rates. For those in the market, preapprovals are prudent. Rising rates will likely trigger more housing activity in the near-term as those thinking of buying might move off the sidelines, pushing prices higher over the first half of this year.

The surge in interest rates would undoubtedly stall or reverse if we see a third wave of new variant COVID cases in advance of a full rollout of the vaccines in Canada. However, there is enough monetary and fiscal stimulus in global markets, and oil prices are expected to continue to rally sufficiently that an ultimate rise in interest rates cannot be far off. This is indicated by the loonie moving to a near a 3-year high.

written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

Canadian Inflation Rose Again in January to 5.1% y/y, Pressuring The Bank of Canada to Hike Rates in March.

StatsCanada today reported that consumer price inflation rose to 5.1% from year-ago levels in January, compared to 4.8% in December. This was higher than expected but still well below US inflation posted at 7.5% for the same period. Undoubtedly, this puts additional pressure on the Bank of Canada to hike the overnight policy rate target in early March when it meets again, despite the disappointing jobs data last month. Even excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.3% y/y last month.

Shelter costs rose 6.2% year over year in January 2022, the fastest pace since February 1990. Higher prices for new homes contribute to higher costs associated with the upkeep of a property or the homeowners’ replacement cost. Higher home prices also tend to raise other owned accommodation expenses. In contrast, lower interest rates bring borrowing costs down—measured in the CPI through the mortgage interest cost index, which includes new and resale home prices.

The owned accommodation index, which measures the ongoing costs of homeownership, increased 6.1% year over year in January. Homeowners’ replacement cost (+13.5%) and other owned accommodation expenses (+14.0%), which includes commissions on the sale of real estate, put upward pressure on shelter prices amid rapid price growth in the housing market throughout the pandemic.

Conversely, mortgage interest costs fell 6.8% year over year in January, putting downward pressure on the shelter index.

Renters also saw a rise in prices, as the rented accommodation index increased 3.2% year over year, contributing to the higher shelter prices Canadians faced in January.

Another highly visible component of rising inflation was the surge in food prices. Shoppers paid more for groceries, as food prices from stores rose faster in January 2022 (+6.5%) than in December 2021 (+5.7%).

Prices for fresh or frozen beef (+13.0%), fresh or frozen chicken (+9.0%), and fresh or frozen fish (+7.9%) rose more in January 2022 compared with December 2021. Margarine (+16.5%) and condiments, spices, and kinds of vinegar (+12.1%) were also up compared with January 2021. Higher input prices and shipping costs because of ongoing supply chain disruptions have contributed to increased food prices. In addition to supply chain disruptions, unfavourable growing conditions have led to higher prices for fresh fruit (+8.2%) and bakery products (+7.4%).

Consumers paid more for alcohol in January 2022, as alcoholic beverages purchased from stores rose 2.9%, following a 1.6% gain in December 2021. Much of this increase stemmed from higher prices for both beer and wine, amid material shortages and increased shipping costs.

Bottom Line

Inflation has now exceeded the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target band for 10 consecutive months. Other central banks have already begun to hike overnight rates from their effective lower bound of 25 basis points introduced in March 2020.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates in March, and last Friday’s jobs report fueled speculation it may need to move aggressively. The Bank of England just delivered back-to-back hikes, and some of its officials wanted to act even more forcefully. The Bank of Canada is set for liftoff next month. Even the European Central Bank may get in on the action later this year.

The recent trucker protests and border blockades have further disrupted the fragile auto supply chain. Wages in Canada rose 2.4% y/y, so Canadian households, on average, are seeing their purchasing power diminish.

Markets are pricing in as many as seven increases in borrowing costs over the next 12 months. While the Bank runs the risk of tightening too aggressively, there is little doubt that the emergency monetary easing has run its course.

written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

No Wonder The Bank of Canada Didn’t Hike Interest Rates Last Month

Statistics Canada released the January Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting a much more extensive than expected decline in jobs last month. The Omicron shutdowns and restrictions took a much larger toll in Canada than expected, as employment fell 200,100 in January and the unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points to 6.5%.

Ontario and Quebec drove January employment declines, and accommodation and food services was the hardest-hit industry. In January, youth and core-aged women, who are more likely than other demographic groups to work in industries affected by the public health measures, saw the most significant impacts. Goods-producing sectors recorded a gain, led by construction.

We did not expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates in January because of the risk that Omicron restrictions would batter the economy at least temporarily. If we see a reversal in these declines in February, rate hikes could well commence. The Bank of Canada’s next policy-decision date is March 2. But we won’t see the Labour Force Survey for February until March 11. This could postpone lift-off by the BoC until the next meeting on April 13, when we will have both the February and March employment reports. This would put the first rate hike in April, exactly when the Bank’s forward guidance initially told us the hikes would begin. 

The timing of lift-off is subject to the incoming data. It is troubling that the US employment report, also released today for January, was surprisingly strong, in contrast. To be sure, the US did not impose Canadian-style Omicron restrictions last month, but the Omicron wave did depress US economic activity. It was expected to translate into weak hiring. It didn’t. 467,000 jobs were created in the US, and massive upward revisions suggest a fundamentally very strong US economy. With US companies desperate to hire and the most significant issue being the lack of qualified staff, wages are rising more sharply south of the border.

Canadian employment remains just over 30,000 above pre-pandemic levels, and the country has a strong track record of bouncing back after prior waves of the virus. Yet, today’s jobs numbers suggest a tough start for the Canadian economy in the first quarter. Hours worked — which is closely correlated to output — fell 2.2% in January, and the number of employees who worked less than half their usual hours jumped by 620,000. January also saw the first drop in full-time employment — down 82,700 — since June.

Average hourly wages grew 2.4% (+$0.72) on a year-over-year basis in January, down from 2.7% in November and December 2021 (not seasonally adjusted). The January 2022 year-over-year change was similar to the average annual wage growth of 2.5% observed in the five years from 2015 to 2019.

The concentration of January 2022 employment losses in lower-wage industries did not significantly impact year-over-year wage change, partly because employment in these industries experienced similar losses in January 2021 as a result of the third wave of COVID-19.

Bottom Line 

There remains uncertainty regarding when (not if) the Bank of Canada will begin to renormalize interest rates. Canadian swaps trading suggests markets are still expecting a hike on March 2, with five more hikes over the next year. Potential homebuyers are certainly anxious to get in under the wire.

written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

No Rate Hike Until March–BoC Assures Inflation Will Return To 2% over 2023-24.

Bank Will Hike Rates At Next Meeting

While markets were 70% certain the Bank would hike their overnight target rate today, we remained of the view that the Governing Council would hold off until March or April because of the slowdown in first-quarter growth arising from the Omicron restrictions. The Bank announced today that economic slack in the economy had been absorbed more rapidly than expected in late October when they last met. “Employment is above pre-pandemic levels, businesses are having a hard time filling job openings, and wage increases are picking up. Unevenness across sectors remains, the Governing Council judges the economy is now operating close to its full capacity.”

Consequently, the Bank now believes that emergency measures arising from the pandemic are no longer necessary. They clearly state that a rising path for interest rates will be required to moderate domestic spending growth and bring inflation back to target. Being mindful that the increasing spread of Omicron will dampen spending in the first quarter, they decided to keep the policy rate unchanged today and to signal that rates will rise going forward. “The timing and pace of those increases will be guided by the Bank’s commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.”

Notably, the Bank also suggested that another vital policy measure to reduce demand and thereby control inflation is “quantitative tightening” (Q.T.), reducing the central bank’s holdings of Canadian government bonds on its balance sheet. This selling of bonds also raises interest rates. “The Bank will keep the holdings of Government of Canada bonds on our balance sheet roughly constant at least until we begin to raise the policy interest rate. At that time, we will consider exiting the reinvestment phase and reducing the size of our balance sheet by allowing maturing Government of Canada bonds to roll off. As we have done in the past, before implementing changes to our balance sheet management, we will provide more information on our plans.”

The Bank of Canada is very concerned about maintaining its hard-won inflation-fighting credibility. Remember that while Canadian inflation is at a 30-year high–as it is in the rest of the world–at 4.8%, Canadian inflation pales compared to the 7.0% rate in the U.S. and 6.8% rate in the U.K. (see chart below). It is also below the pace of the Euro area. The Bank stated that “CPI inflation remains well above the target range and core measures of inflation have edged up since October. Persistent supply constraints are feeding through to a broader range of goods prices and, combined with higher food and energy prices, are expected to keep CPI inflation close to 5% in the first half of 2022. As supply shortages diminish, inflation is expected to decline reasonably quickly to about 3% by the end of this year and gradually ease towards the target over the projection period. Near-term inflation expectations have moved up, but longer-run expectations remain anchored on the 2% target. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to ensure that higher near-term inflation expectations do not become embedded in ongoing inflation.”

written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper